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南京的娃儿夜晚都喜欢去的十佳娱乐的好地方,

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发表于 2018-9-13 13:40:01 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
On September 10, the National Health and Health Commission issued the Regulations on Function Allocation, Institutions and Staffing of the National Health and Health Commission. Three departments related to family planning were abolished. At the same time, the Department of Aging Health and the Department of Population Health and Family Development were added. Health care Bureau and other new institutions. No wonder the media has exclaimed that the era of full liberalization of family planning has arrived. At this point, the right to give birth to the right to the people, independent birth is only the last layer of paper.

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When I wrote about pension pressures, which suddenly doubled from $1.8 trillion in 2013 to $3.8 trillion in 2017, readers wrote that the majority of retirees in 2013 were born in 1953, the number of new-born was small, and the number of retirees in 2018 was born in 1958. This was a population peak. As it stands, the next retirement will be a three-year-old population born in difficult times, and policymakers may be tempered. In the past 60 years, the relationship between politics and economy is so paradoxical.



In 1959, when the three-year difficult period began, China's birth population dropped sharply from 17 million in 1958 to 13 million. In 1961, it was the only 11 million people since the founding of New China. But everything has a different interpretation. Today, the man born in 1959 will retire next year, 2019. Women born at the peak of population after the founding of the People's Republic of China, and even women workers in the period of rapid population recovery before the Cultural Revolution, have retired, and female cadres have partially retired. The pension system in the three eastern provinces and the western region, which is in short supply, undoubtedly gives managers a little breathing time.



But the good times left to the social security system are fleeting. After three difficult years of life, the newborn ushered in the "Great Leap Forward", with a birth population of 21 million in 1962 and 28 million in 1963, the second highest in history. The baby boom, which lasted until the late Cultural Revolution, had the longest duration and the largest number of births among the three baby booms since the founding of New China. The population climbed to the peak of history. The peak in 63 years, 67 years and 70 years all broke 27 million.

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From 1962, when the three-year difficult period ended, to 1980, when China fully implemented its family planning policy, about 400 million babies were born in China. This huge population wealth has become a demographic dividend for the reform and opening up of the economy. Soon, the payment of this bonus is coming.



For the increasingly tight pension system, 2022 corresponds to the retirement year for men born in 1962. This means that the number of people entering retirement age will increase rapidly, which will be 5 million more than that of the current year. Now every year, the new employment population is after 90 or even 00, their peers in a year only 16 to 17 million. This will be a huge burden compared with the new population of more than 20 million elderly people, or with about 30-40% of the retired population.



In the 1970s, influenced by family planning and the natural decline in fertility after food and clothing, China's newly born population declined. The population of the Post-70s in China was 30 million fewer than that of the post-60s. The total population of the post-70 generation is about 215 million, the first generation of baby boomers entered childbearing age after the founding of the People's Republic of China in the 1980s, and the population rebounded briefly. The total population of the post-80 generation is 228 million. Since then, the population has shrunk in the form of collapse. The total population of the post-90s generation is 174 million, which is 50 million less than that of the post-80s generation. The total population of the post-00s generation is only 147 million, which is nearly 100 million less than that of the post-80s generation.



China began its one-child family planning policy in 1980. Today, the youngest age of the post-80s generation is 29, while the golden age for women to have children is 20-29. This means that the current main population is basically "dual independence" or "independence". After more than 30 years of implementing the national family planning policy, we seem to have missed the best time to adjust our population policy. The postponement of retirement age is also delayed because of the wide range of implications. The "421" family brought by the family planning policy will be fully transformed into the "421" Pension Structure at the national level, putting more burden on the old-age care of the only child who once had thousands of favorites.



In 2014, scholars predicted that a full-scale second child would lead to an annual increase of more than 30 million births, once deterring policy makers from adjusting their policies. But in fact, only in the first year of the full-scale two-child policy, the number of births increased by 1.31 million compared with the previous year, creating the largest number of new births since 2000. But in the second year of 2017, the number of births was reduced, which indicated that the two child boom had passed quickly.



Statistics from more than 200 countries and regions show that the fertility rates of Hong Kong, Taiwan and Macau, which are predominantly Chinese, are all below 1.2 and at the end of the world. If we take into account the impact of an unprecedented disaster 60 years ago on China's population structure, three years later, an aging population and a population structure with fewer children will become more prominent.



The aging process in developed countries has lasted for hundreds of years, such as 115 years in France, 85 years in Switzerland, 80 years in Britain, 60 years in the United States, and China has entered an aging society in only 20 years. Family planning accelerates the cash flow of the demographic dividend and is bound to squeeze the "bill" into a very short period of time, embarrassing the debtors. If the family planning policy can quickly become a history in a short span of 3 years, it can only mean that the situation is pressing.

Recently, US media and Philippine media have reported that Philippine President Dutlett is negotiating an agreement with China to share oil and gas resources in disputed waters of the South China Sea. Philippine Foreign Minister Kayetano said the two sides would shelve the dispute to break the deadlock, and the two governments are working out a legal framework to focus on the visit of Chinese President Xi Jinping to the Philippines in November. China's Foreign Ministry said the two leaders had reached important consensus on a proper solution to the South China Sea issue, including a commitment to pragmatic cooperation and joint development, and that such cooperation would not affect the legal status of any party in the disputed waters.



Actually, "shelving disputes and co developing" comes from the wisdom of Philosophy in China. On October 25, 1978, Deng Xiaoping visited Japan as Vice Premier of the State Council. Deng Xiaoping emphasized that the two sides should attach importance to the overall situation on the Diaoyu Islands issue, and avoid the territorial issues that are inconsistent with each other. It is wise to avoid such issues. It does not matter. Our generation is not smart enough, our next generation is always smarter than us, and will always find a good way to solve this problem that everyone can accept.



Philippines's recognition of "shelving disputes" can also be traced back to the 80s of last century. In April 1988, President Aquino visited China, and when Deng Xiaoping met with her, he expounded the idea again. This President Aquino is precisely before the so-called South China Sea arbitration flagrantly launched against China's current Aquino III. Deng Xiaoping said to President Aquino, "Starting from the friendly relations between the two countries, the South China Sea issue can be shelved for a while and a joint development approach can be adopted." President Aquino responded positively to Deng Xiaoping's proposition. But Deng Xiaoping also pointed out clearly that "sovereignty belongs to me". He pointed out that "the Nansha Islands, the world map has always been drawn to China," and "we have a lot of evidence, many countries in the world map can prove this.



Just in early September, a second-hand US warship donated to the Philippines accidentally ran aground on the Chinese half-moon reef. As the Western media scrambled to report, there was great hope that China and the Philippines would turn upside down again. But what is unexpected is that in a few days, China and Philippines not only actively communicated, but also joined hands to pull the warships out of the shoal, highlighting the good mutual trust and smooth communication between China and Philippines. .



As we all know, Philippines's oil and gas resources are extremely scarce. Although the Philippines had drilled for oil around it as early as 1896, production was not high because of technology shortages. According to the Philippine Ministry of Energy, the Philippines spends a lot of money on importing oil every year. In 2016, the Philippines imported 165 million barrels of oil, totaling $7.45 billion. According to the 2007 BP World Energy Statistics Yearbook, the proven reserves of the Philippines are less than 200 million tons, while those of Malaysia, which is not far away from the proven reserves, are 500 million tons. Because most of Philippines's oil and gas are in deep water area, exploration and development is more difficult. To this end, Philippines has to seek help from other countries.



In 2005, China, the Philippines and Vietnam signed the Tripartite Joint Marine Seismic Work Agreement in the South China Sea Agreement Area, in order to make preparations for oil exploration and development in the South China Sea. However, the agreement was obstructed by the Philippine opposition and shelved until now.



It is obvious that Philippine President Dutert's tough hand will play a great role in the Sino-Philippine joint development, especially in recent years, China's deep-sea drilling vessels in the South China Sea frequent reports, whether in exploration or mining, the technical upgrading is obvious. For the Philippines, instead of burying the surrounding oil and gas resources deep in the sea, it is better to cooperate with China to benefit from the South China Sea.



According to the Wall Street Journal, once China and the Philippines sign an agreement to jointly develop the South China Sea, it will throw a shock wave between China and the South China Sea rights and interests claimants, and invitations for cooperation from various countries may come in a flood. The western oil companies often checked the status quo of the South China Sea development, and will also be greatly changed.

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